Any shift in America’s policies could wreak havoc on East Asia, and a shift in American policy is far from unimaginable. Objectively, however, there is a massive imbalance of power. ![]() Subjectively, the last thing any nation in the region wants is conflict. So East Asia has no real effective counter to an American military or economic move. One of the tools it can use is protectionist legislation, backed up by its military strength. It is possible that the United States, responding to domestic pressures, might try to reshape economic relations in the Pacific Basin. “The United States is also susceptible to internal political pressures from those groups disproportionately affected by cheaper Asian imports. They can become aggressive in trying to open up other markets, sometimes through political or military pressure.” Countries facing economic disaster become unpredictable. ![]() The same would be true for Japan and other Asian countries. If the United States barred Chinese products, or imposed tariffs that made Chinese goods uncompetitive, China would face a massive economic crisis. That possibility, however remote, represents a serious threat to the interests of East Asia.Ĭhina sends almost one-quarter of all its exports to the United States. Therefore, regardless of the overall benefits of trade with Asia, the United States could wind up in a situation where domestic political considerations force it to change its policy toward Asian imports. One of the characteristics of the United States is that it tends to be oversensitive to domestic political concerns because it has a great deal of room to maneuver in foreign policy. What benefits consumers can simultaneously increase unemployment and decrease wages, creating complex political cross-currents within the United States. At the same time, this trade pattern devastates certain American economic sectors and regions by undermining domestic industry. “The United States consumes massive amounts of Asia’s industrial products, which benefits the United States as a whole by providing consumers with cheap goods. “… Eastern European countries might not surpass Western European countries in absolute size of their economies, but certainly Eastern Europe will surpass Western Europe in terms of dynamism.” The Poles, on the northern European plain, will be the most vulnerable, yet at the same time the largest and most important Eastern European nation…” The Slovaks, Hungarians and Romanians have been the least vulnerable to the Russians because the Carpathians formed a natural barrier. As Russia collapses, the Eastern European countries will extend their influence and power to the east. “Eastern Europe will become the most dynamic region of Europe. ….To Poland’s pleasant surprise, the United States will be strong enough to block the Russians.” There will be little enthusiasm in Germany or France for any confrontation, so Poland will do what it historically did when confronted by Russia or Germany – it will seek an outside power to protect it. As the Russians come back to its frontier, Poland will look to the rest of Europe to support it through NATO. ![]() Poland has everything to lose from Russia’s reemergence and little to protect it from the Russians. In a sense, they will be leading the Americans as much as being led. “The most enthusiastic participants in the American confrontation with the Russians will be the former Soviet satellites, particularly Poland. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term, shifts taking place in full view of the world.” Conventional political analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. The fall of the Soviet Union was hard to imagine, and that is exactly the point. In international relations, the way the world looks right now is not at all how it will look in twenty years….or even less. It is simply that the things that appear to be so permanent and dominant at any given moment in history can change with stunning rapidity. There is no magic twenty-year cycle there is not simplistic force governing this pattern. “At a certain level, when it comes to the future, the only thing one can be sure of is that common sense will be wrong. Overture: An introduction to the American Age I will be satisfied if I explain something about how the world works today, and how that, in turn, defines how it will work in the future." (from Author’s Note) But the goal is to identify the major tendencies-geopolitical, technological, demographic, cultural, military-in their broadest sense, and to define the major events that might take place. I will, of course, get many details wrong. “In this book, I am trying to transmit a sense of the future.
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